构筑东亚未来：中美制度均势与东亚体系转型

冷战结束后，东亚国际关系中出现的新现象是中国的迅速崛起和美国的霸权护持。在此背景下，美国主导的双边同盟体系与中国倡导的多边合作体系处于并存和较量时期，体现了东亚国际体系的二元结构特征。如何解释两种体系的兼容共存以及如何实现兼容共存？本书将分析并回答上述两个紧密关联的重要问题。 在理论上，笔者在比较借鉴主流国际关系理论的基础上，引入了“制度均势”理论这一新的理论分析框架。在东亚国际关系实践中，尽管中国的快速崛起和美国的霸权护持之间形成了某种“战略性矛盾”，但是中美两国之间并没有出现传统的权力均势或军事均势行为。相反，在中美经济相互依存日益加深和共同参与大量国际机制的背景下，中美两国都采取了制度均势行为，并在东亚国际关系中形成了一种制度政治。这就使得多边合作体系与双边同盟体系谁也无法完全取代对方，现实的路径选择是二者相互兼容共处。这就从理论和实践两方面解释了“两种体系的兼容共存”。 为了进一步回答“如何实现两种体系的兼容共存”，笔者又在借鉴国际制度互动理论的基础上，提出了两种体系兼容的“制度嵌套交叠模式”。该模式是基于两种体系都无法取代另一方这样一个事实，也是中美两国在东亚采取制度均势政策的结果。 在未来相当长时期内，中国的实力仍无法与美国抗衡，在国际体系中无法挑战美国。为了实现中美两国的和平共处和东亚体系的和平转型，中国仍需积极实施对美制度均势战略，并努力推进中国主张的多边合作体系和美国主导的双边同盟体系在东亚的兼容共存。 Since the end of the Cold War，the international relations in East Asia have shown a new phenomenon that China rises rapidly while the Untied States maintains its hegemony in this region. In this context, the coexistence and balance between China’s multilateral cooperation system and U.S.-led bilateral alliance system present a dualistic structural feature in East Asia. How can the compatibility and coexistence of the two systems be explained and be achieved, which is a closely related question that this book tries to answer. Theoretically, after comparing and overviewing the mainstream international relations theories, the author proposes a new theoretical analysis framework—institutional balancing. In the practice of East Asia international relations, though the rapid rising of China and the U.S.’s hegemonic maintenance constitute “strategic contradiction”, traditional power balance or military balance fail to appear between China and the U.S. On the contrary, under the context of increasing economic interdependence and shared participation in international institutions between these two countries, both China and the U.S. adopt institutional balancing and create institutional politics in East Asia international relations. The phenomenon makes it impossible for multilateral cooperation system and bilateral alliance to replace each other. The realistic choice is to achieve the coexistence of them, which explains “the coexistence and compatibility of these two systems” theoretically and practically. To further answer how to achieve the coexistence and compatibility of these two systems, the author proposes “nested overlapping model” for the two systems on the basis of institutional interaction theory. This model is based upon the fact that the two systems can not to be replaced each other and is also the result of adopting institutional balancing by the two countries. In a rather long time in the future, China has no real power to balance and challenge the U.S. in international system. Therefore, for the sake of the peaceful coexistence between the two countries and peaceful transition of East Asia international system, China still needs to actively enforce and improve the institutional balancing strategy concerning the U.S. At the same time, China should work hard to promote the compatibility and coexistence of the multilateral cooperation system and the bilateral alliance system in East Asia.

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